Sales of electric passenger vehicles (EVs) are forecast to decline 18 percent in 2020, to 1.7 million worldwide, with the coronavirus crisis interrupting ten consecutive years of strong growth.
However, sales of combustion-engine cars will fall even faster this year by 23 percent, and the long-term electrification of transportation is projected to accelerate in the coming years.
The latest Annual Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook, released by research company BloombergNEF (BNEF), shows that electric models account for 58 percent of new passenger car sales globally by 2040, and 31 percent. percent of the entire car fleet.
They will also account for 67 percent of all municipal buses on the road for that year, plus 47 percent of two-wheelers and 24 percent of light commercial vehicles.
The figures have important implications for the oil and electricity markets.
The electrification of transportation, particularly in the form of two-wheelers, is already eliminating nearly one million barrels of oil demand per day and by 2040 will eliminate 17.6 million barrels per day.
Electric vehicles (EVs) of all types are seen to add 5.2% to global electricity demand by 2040.
Colin McKerracher, BNEF's head of advanced transportation, commented: “The Covid-19 pandemic will cause a major slowdown in global vehicle sales in 2020. It is raising tough questions about the priorities of automakers and their ability to finance the transition. The long-term trajectory has not changed, but the market will be bumpy for the next three years. "
BNEF's analysis suggests that global sales of internal combustion engines, or ICEs, peaked in 2017 and will continue their long-term decline after a temporary post-crisis recovery.